For better or worse, this is the most important question that every coaching staff and front office is trying to answer in the first game of the season. Unexpected things happen in the first two weeks of the season, and more than ever this year.
First, the ratings are actually upside down. On Monday, the Thunder, Jazz, Spurs and Trail Blazers were leading 18–8; three of those four teams had to lose to Victor Wimbama. The Pacers are 3-4 and seventh in the league in offense. Meanwhile, the five accused rivals – the Clippers, Warriors, 76ers, Heat and Nets – are rated 11-22.
Dig deeper and the weirdness will only get bigger. Last season’s two strongest defensive teams, Boston and Golden State, finished 22nd and 23rd, respectively. Memphis and Miami are ranked fourth and fifth, respectively. This season they are 28th and 20th. Sorry, but if you want to see the top 10 defenses, you need to call Jazz or Wizards.
Besides, it’s still early. We’re talking about a sample of six games played by most of these teams. Some surprises can be attributed to luck and other forms of distinction. For example, the Nets had a poor 1-5 start and finished in last place on defense, but their opponents also shot 43.8 percent of 3, which is unsustainable; Brooklyn is fourth on defense with 2 points. On the other hand, Charlotte’s surprise start without two key backcourt players may have been influenced by Jedi’s 3-point defense, which was only 28.2% from 3-point range.
These issues were most pronounced in the City of Angels, where the Lakers and Clippers unexpectedly started the game with two of the league’s worst offenses and led 2–8 when not playing each other. They’re so brutal on offense that they’re orders of magnitude worse than No. 28 Orlando. The Magic’s 107.9 points per 100 possessions is closer to the league average than the 29th-place Clippers’ 102.2 points.
The Lakers’ struggles garnered so much national attention that the Clippers’ woes largely hid them from national attention. They can change their motto to “Thank God for the Lakers.” However, Sunday’s doubles at the arena formerly known as the Staples Center showed that the Clippers’ early troubles could be just as vexing as their clubmates, as their dying 112–91 defeat dropped them to 2– four.
For both teams, their struggle is based on the main mathematical problem. At least the Lakers know: how are they supposed to score if no one can shoot straight? The Lakers played very hard (third on defense!) and converted many open threes. They just can’t do either – shooting from 3-point range is a ridiculous 26.6% this season. On at least one night, they scored 123 points in Sunday’s victory over Denver, but more serious questions remain. When this team shot 28.6% from behind the arc in preseason, it was harder to dismiss them as an exception.
Turning point for the Lakers? Why Russell Westbrook and Anthony Davis spark optimism in LA right now
Meanwhile, the heart of the Clippers’ dilemma (as our Lowe Murray so convincingly demonstrated) is that if you don’t shoot, you can’t score, and the Clippers are losing the battle for possession by a staggering margin. Despite being dominated by security guards, their 16.1 percent turnover is in the last mile.
How can a team of jumping shooters flip so much? Something like this. The miniature Clippers also rank 27th in offensive rebounding percentage. Thus, per 100 possessions, the Clippers are last in field goal attempts and second in last free throw attempts; if you don’t hit that often, it doesn’t matter what you hit.
The Clippers can obviously point to Kawhi Leonard’s limited availability, but they had this problem a year ago and it’s nowhere near as bad.
The Clippers’ entire philosophy is based on the fact that they have two All-Star wings to lean on and plenty of quality role options. So far it hasn’t played out. Forget the All-Stars: Paul George hasn’t been an average player yet. Norman Powell and Reggie Jackson fall through next to him, with a lot of losses in search of jumpers.
Again, if either team plays a more normal 10 games, it’s probably just a short-term mirage. Or maybe they are this season. We don’t know yet.
That’s why most smart teams strongly resist the call “oh my god, do something!” make major lineup changes in the first two weeks. We see that the outlines of the pattern are beginning to form, but there is not enough information yet.
In this case, there is also potential impatience for both Los Angeles teams depending on when their star forward’s superpowers might expire, but two questions need to be answered first.
The first obvious question is: “What do we need?” The Lakers may respond with a certain hit, while the Clippers may want a larger size.
But let’s assume for a moment that the weaknesses that these teams showed at the start of the season are real problems and will not go away. There is another important question: is it worth saving this team?
Especially for the Lakers, that’s what the next 15-20 games will be about. It’s often rumored that trading two future first-round picks and Russell Westbrook to Indiana for Buddy Hild and Miles Turner is a potential opportunity to add more shots, but will that make them better?
It’s not even about whether he moves the arrow. It’s just that the arrow is moved too far to the left, and it probably doesn’t matter. Is it worth burning two potential picks to finish ninth instead of thirteenth? Are the Lakers ready to take their meds this season, start the summer with draft picks and a clean salary cap, and start over with LeBron James and Anthony Davis? For now, the argument is that the Lakers’ slow start makes an Indiana-style trade more likely, but I think there are enough issues with their start that could reduce the likelihood of them chasing the 2022–23 season in the future.
(Note to those who urged these teams to tank: Both the Lakers and Clippers are required to trade drafts to a previous trade. This did not happen.)
So let’s wait and see. Not only in Los Angeles, but also in Brooklyn, Miami, Philadelphia and the Golden State. At some point, these teams will have enough sample of games to explicitly state that their early weaknesses are a problem, and if so, they will determine whether to strengthen their lineup through the trade market.
We do not have. Unofficially, many front offices use the 20-game mark as a real check on where they are, with almost a month to go. Especially in Los Angeles, it will be several intense weeks of information gathering.
Once the season starts, most of the decision-making process in the front office takes place over a period of time, but there is one more thing to do on Halloween.
This is the last day teams can purchase third and fourth year options on first round rookie contracts signed in 2020 and 2021. It was a somewhat brutal decision (sorry) that the team had to pick the next year option a year early, with a full season in between.
Teams that opt out of this option limit the number of players they can offer to free agents (the number of options can’t exceed), so if a player has a good season, he’s Gonzo. At the same time, it will still be on your list for a whole year, which may prevent you from giving up this option.
Phoenix, for example, turned down a third-year 2020 lottery pick Jalen Smith last season, eventually trading him to Indiana, where he almost immediately turned the corner and signed a new contract with the Pacers after the season.
Because of these considerations and the fact that most rookie contract options are cheap, teams tend to be very tempted to add option years. The only player denied a third-year move is Utah’s Leandro Bolmaro, who was listed as a loser in a trade for Rudy Gobert and is not in the Jazz’s plans. (San Antonio also waived 2021 rookie Josh Primo over the weekend, but had already purchased his third-year option.)
The acceptance rate for the fourth year option is almost as high, including the couple I’m interested in. New Orleans’ Kira Lewis Jr. was injured and canceled the first two seasons, and the Pelicans still have a $5.7 million option for him in 2023-24 with potential luxury tax issues. Toronto’s Malachi Flynn is also struggling to gain momentum, but he only has $3.9 million for the 2023-24 season, which the Raptors think it can’t hurt. Detroit received a $7.4 million option from Kylian Hayes but was unwilling to write off the seventh overall pick in the 2020 draft.
Ultimately, the only options that were rejected were Utah’s Udoka Azubuike, the 27th pick in 2020, who barely played, and Orlando’s R.J. Hampton.
Hampton is amazing because the Magic is rebuilding, Hampton is only 21 and his $4.2 million option next year is not onerous. However, Hampton struggled in his second pro season (8.5 PER, 48.1 shooting percentage), and more importantly, the Magic may not have had enough room for him. Orlando already have 12 players signed for next season and will have two first-round picks and (probably) a high-ranking second-round pick in 2023.
(Note: this section doesn’t necessarily describe the best weekly outlook. Just the one I was looking at.)
I attended Overtime Elite Pro Day in Atlanta on Tuesday, where we saw most of the 17 and 18 year olds train four on four and five on five in front of almost all the scouts. Teams in the league and some grandmasters.
While most players won’t be able to draft in a year or two, the crown jewel of the OTE roster are twin brothers Amen and Ausar Thompson. Most evaluators see Amen Thompson as a likely third pick in the draft, while Ausar is considered a medium to high lottery pick. Both are 6-foot-7 athletic forwards who can handle the ball and defend from multiple positions, potentially making each of them the all-around wing that GMs would dream of. (Our Sam Vesenye expects Amen to be No. 3 in his latest tryout draft and Ausar to be No. 10.)
Seeing them with his own eyes, Amen confirmed everything written – he is big, copes with the ball, jumps aggressively from the floor. (Ossar is still recovering from a recent ankle injury that didn’t affect his play or passing, but clearly affected his shot on Tuesday.) Amen’s explosiveness is stronger in defense against dunks.
Moreover, Amen, in particular, has a very accurate shot. It used to be one of his big weaknesses, and it’s not that he immediately became Stephen Curry. But the spin of the ball is correct, the shape is repeatable, and even misses look solid. I have seen many 19 year olds look worse. Ausar’s jump shot looks more like a work in progress, but it also seems to be on the right shelf compared to how I saw it last year.
There are a few more things to be picky about if you really want to. Both measure height with short arms; one could also argue that both are too right-handed and rely too much on finishing with their feet in traffic. They will also turn 20 and a half on draft night, which is a long way to go once and for all. For example, they are a year older than the top two rookies, Victor Wimbanyama and Scott Henderson.
However, I think my view of Thompson is a bit more optimistic than the consensus. Feedback on their character and attitude was very positive, and there were far fewer issues with filming. For example, I’d compare Ausar Thompson to New Orleans rookie Dyson Daniels, an equally big, ball-handling winger with defensive ability, a strong background, and a fickle shot; Daniels selected 8th overall in the 2022 draft.
Amen Thompson has a higher ceiling, especially when his shot is fixed. A big winger who can hold the ball and pass is the most coveted number in the league; even a “disappointing” version of Thompson would have been a very valuable player.
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John Hollinger’s 20-year NBA experience includes seven seasons as vice president of basketball for the Memphis Grizzlies and media work at ESPN.com and SI.com. A pioneer in basketball analysis, he invented several cutting-edge metrics, most notably the PER standard. He is also the author of four issues of Pro Basketball Predictions. In 2018, he received the Lifetime Achievement Award at the Sloan Motion Analysis conference. Follow John on Twitter @johnhollinger
Post time: Nov-03-2022